Reason to vote no on commuter rail

The picture below is my son, Ethan. He wanted me to tell you that by the time he’s ten, he wants urban rail service (dedicated right-of-way; not streetcars) running down the real urban rail corridor (Lamar/Guadalupe), not “Rapid Bus”. He also wanted me to add that if you vote for commuter rail, and his dad is right about the negative effects, he’s coming for you.


If I were you, I’d do what he wants.

2017 update: We have almost no useful transit now running down Guadalupe/Lamar because groups like AURA have allied themselves with bad actors instead of continuing honest pro-transit advocacy. Good job, guys! Here’s what Ethan looks like now in early 2017; there’s still no good rail in this city, and we’re set to lose all local bus service on Guadalupe and Speedway thanks to AURA’s credulous support of Connections 2025!

8 down, 19992 to go

My wife and I voted (early) on Sunday. And this weekend, Jonathan Horak endorsed this blog’s position. Also, Chip Rosenthal declared his opposition and used very similar reasoning to that used by this author.

In the meantime, Ben Wear wrote about commuter rail again on Sunday in the Statesman, this time using my colleague Patrick Goetz for the lone pro-transit and oh-my-god-does-this-plan-really-stink perspective. I think I’ve fallen permanently off his radar.

Finally, in the twenty minutes or so since I submitted this post, a blog I’ve not read before called Grits For Breakfast added their endorsement, and the author made a very good general point about how perplexing it is that Austin voters don’t fight these Austin-bashing initiatives harder.

Which possible outcome should scare you more?

a response to Dave Dobbs on the austin-bikes list, in which Dave ended with:

There will be no options if this doesn’t pass.

In fact, it will be difficult to defend Capital Metro’s money if this election doesn’t pass. However, it will be even MORE difficult to defend Capital Metro’s money if this election does pass, and the rail service meets my expectations (matching the performance of South Florida’s Tri-Rail, the only other new start rail plan relying exclusively on shuttle buses for passenger distribution). At that point, we will have SHOWN that “rail doesn’t work in Austin”, and the long-term justification for at least 1/4 cent of Capital Metro’s money will be gone.

The position, however, that we will definitely lose the money after an election failure fails to compel on two counts:

  1. We didn’t permanently lose the money in 2000
  2. Even if we do ‘lose’ the money, it’s going to be easier to get it back if we don’t have a pathetically poor rail line on the ground SHOWING people that “rail doesn’t work in Austin”.

Keep in mind, if you doubt me that commuter rail won’t work, that:

  1. Most of the people in 2000 who said they wanted light rail get no rail service from the starter line, and most of that most don’t get rail service in the long-range plan either.
  2. The people who ARE being delivered rail service are the people who, in 2000, were most against light rail.
  3. Those lucky few being delivered rail service are precisely the people who have been the LEAST WILLING to ride buses, and yet in order to use this rail line, they’re going to have to ride a bus every single day.
  4. In order to improve this line in any way, shape, or form, a follow-on election must be held. Does anybody think that’s going to be easy to sell, what with the pro-rail PAC telling everybody that we’re following a “vote on every step” plan so they can evaluate rail’s performance each time before approving more?

At worst, I urge all of you to remember the Great Shoal Creek Debacle Of Aught-Aught. Is anybody willing to argue with me NOW that I was wrong back then? Want to bet against me again?

If I win, what do we do

Phil Hallmark from the austin-bikes email list asked for a clear description of what my “next referendum” would look like, since I’m asking people to vote no on this one. A good point; while I’ve made some recommendations scattered through this blog, I haven’t ever written it down in one place.

My referendum would be, legally, the same language as this one (since ballot language just says “operation of a rail system”) but the notice of election would state that the starter line would be a light rail line running from Leander to downtown Austin (sound similar?). I don’t know if it’s even legal to state “running past UT and the Capitol”, but I’d give it a whirl.

The difference is that the routing would follow the 2000 election’s route. I would drop South Congress completely from the long-range plan; the starter line would use the existing rail right-of-way from the northwest; entering Lamar Blvd at its intersection with Airport Blvd (as in 2000); switching to Guadalupe; running by the Triangle, Central Park, West Campus. It would run next to UT on Guadalupe.

The line would transition to Congress Ave. around 11th; then run down Congress to 4th St., terminating there (for the time being). The long-range plan would continue that line west to Seaholm and then south on the UP right-of-way into south Austin (this solves the South Congress opposition in 2000). (Is there enough space for the train to turn on/off Congress at 4th? I think so; but I’m not sure).

The long-range plan would also include spurs to Mueller and Bergstrom. But as wth commuter rail, you only vote on the starter line.

Isn’t this a small change? Well, my position on the 2000 election is that you could put the EXACT SAME PACKAGE up for a vote again, and there’d be a 60% chance of passage (with Dubya voters energized in 2000, it lost by less than 1%). With the South Congress change made to avoid opposition from that sector, I’d estimate an 80% chance of success with my plan.

Shouldn’t Capital Metro have tried something like this? Any one of a few changes could have brought the 2000 light rail line over the top, after all (another option is avoiding Crestview/Wooten). Well, as I’ve said, they weren’t motivated by the voters, but by one particular state legislator.

If this sounds good to you, you’d better vote against commuter rail; because light rail on this corridor is effectively precluded by the implementation of commuter rail.